鹿児島県知事選挙で現職の三田園氏が敗北〜改めて胸に刻んだ「選挙こそ唯一の評価」という事実。

2020年7月13日 昨日、開票された鹿児島県知事選挙で、新人候補が現職候補等を破って初当選した。自民、公明の推薦を受けた現職の三反園訓 氏は届かなかった。実は(少し前から)「かなり危ないのではないか」と感じていた。 最も強いはずの2回目の選挙で現職が負けた理由は、いろいろあると思う。が、最大の敗因は、「現職知事に人気がなかった」ということに尽きる。それ以上でも、それ以下でもない。 ある政治家が「選挙区の有権者にどれだけ評価されているか?」を測る物差しは、(幸か不幸か)選挙の結果(得票数と得票率)しかない。 選挙の強い政治家は地元で人気があり、選挙の弱い政治家は評判が良くない。前回の選挙と比較して得票が伸びていれば、期待度が上がっている。逆に(当選しても)票数が減っていれば、期待度や鮮度が下がっている。それだけのことだ。 この現実をどこまで直視し、どこまで冷静に分析出来るかどうかが、次の選挙の趨勢を大きく左右する。 それにしても、選挙とは厳しいものだ。大きな組織や団体が応援してくれているからと言って、勝てるとは限らない。その当たり前の事実を、改めて胸に刻み込んだ。 知事に就任して間もなく1年になる。文字どおり、全力疾走の日々だった。それもそのはず。知事になった瞬間から「4年間1本勝負」のつもりでやっているからだ。 正直言って、次回の選挙のことは、全く考えていない。いや、そんなことを考える余裕がないと言ったほうが正確だろう。 言うまでもなく、政治は「一寸先は闇」という世界だ。世の中の情勢も、猛スピードで変わる。だいいち、(現時点では)続きをみる

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