参議院選挙が公示:野党は巨大与党とどう戦うか

 7月4日、参議院選挙が公示された。最近の世論調査を見ると、安倍内閣の支持率は高く、政党支持率でも自民党が群を抜いている。 NHK世論調査(6月28~30日)を見てみると、安倍内閣支持率は45(+3)%、不支持率は31(−3)%である。政党支持率は、自民34.9(+3.3)%、立憲5.8(+0.1)%、国民1.1(±0)%、公明3.8(−1.0)%、共産3.4(−0.3)%、維新3.0(+0.8)%、社民0.6(+0.1)%でるが、無党派が38.3(−4.4)%もいる。 政党支持率は、立憲民主党、国民民主党、共産党、社民党を足しても、自民党一党にすら遙かに及ばない。つまり、自民・公明連立政権は安泰で、政権交代など夢であるという状態である。 ただ、世論調査の結果で注目すべきなのは、「支持政党なし」層が多いことである。メディアによってばらつきはあるが、自民党よりも多い調査が多い。単純化して言えば、この無党派層の支持を獲得できれば、政権交代は可能だということである。 10年前の夏の総選挙のときがまさにそうで、「コンクリートから人へ」とか「政権交代」とういうスローガンが功を奏して、民主党が圧勝し、政権の座に就いた。 政権交代を実現するには、自民党とは異なる、しかし現実的な政策を提示して、広範な国民の支持を調達する必要がある。単に自民党のスキャンダルを追及するのみでは、党勢の拡大は不可能である。 参院選に向けて、野党は選挙協力を進め、32ある1人区のすべてで候補者の一本化を決めた。しかし、複数区は混戦となる。10年前、非共産の野党は民主続きをみる

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