事前避難対象地域を指定したが理解はできず

南海トラフの想定震源域の西側で地震が発生し、「南海トラフ地震(巨大地震警戒)」が発表された場合、東側(名古屋市)の後発地震に備え、地震発生から1週間、地震動に伴う河川の堤防沈下の影響により、地震発生から30分以内に30㎝以上の浸水が生じる地域を事前避難対象地域として名古屋市が指定する。事前に避難することにより、より安全性を高めることができる。

■ 事前避難対象地域
〇 熱田区(千年学区)
〇 中川区(正色学区、五反田学区、戸田学区、春田学区、豊春学区、西前田学区)
〇 港区(東築地学区、港西学区、当知学区、高木学区、神宮寺学区、南陽学区、西福田学区、福田学区)
〇 南区(豊田学区、道徳学区、白水学区、千鳥学区、柴田学区)
〇 緑区(大高学区)

■ 事前避難対象者数
〇 21学区、24,540人

■ 対象地域における具体的な対応
・対象地域の住民に対する知人・親せき宅や指定避難所への1週間の事前避難の呼びかけ
・対象地域外の指定避難所の確保(対象地域を工区内に含む市立小中学校や市内のスポーツセンター・生涯学習センター等)
・対象地域内での社会活動の一定程度の制限(1週間の事業中止や施設の閉鎖)

■ 事前避難運用開始日時
令和3年7月3日(土)0時
※ 名古屋市防災会議議決の翌日

■ 広報
本市ウェブサイト、広報なごや、事前避難対象地域を中心に開催するタウンミーティング(住民説明会)及び啓発リーフレットなどを活用し、普及啓発に努める。

GKN20NW0012JA-03■ あまりにも乱暴な想定
事前避難対象地域の指定の考え方はあまり短絡的。南海トラフ地震により河川堤防の周辺が一律75%沈下すると仮定し、海抜の低い地域を事前避難対象地域として定めたにすぎない。液状化によって堤防が決壊する個所の考え方も科学的ではなく理解に苦しむ。

unnamed-file-24東日本大震災以降、堤防周辺が巨大地震で液状化しないよう堤防の液状化層を鋼矢板で挟み込む「鋼矢板二重締切工」が完了した地域においても、工事の効果は全く評価せず、単純に堤防高さを一律75%下げた想定をしているのが実情だ。これでは何のために堤防の液状化対策を進めたのかわからず、市民の理解は得られないばかりか、結局は誰も事前避難しないという結果になりかねない。
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